Who Will Rebuild The House That Trump Broke?

If there’s one thing that the Trump era has done, it’s exposed the rot at the center of Republican institutions. The party leadership was so ineffective and unfocused that it found itself powerless to stop Trump’s nomination over 15 more qualified candidates in 2016. Over the course of the next four years, it allowed the Trump movement to completely take over the entire national apparatus, change the majority of its’ policy and ideological planks, and turn the conservative movement into a populist cult of personality, not unlike the Peronists in Argentina.

The problem with person-based coalitions is that they inevitably fall apart when that strongman leaves office. Once the Trump era is over, the void in the GOP will be so all encompassing that anyone with the willpower and organization to step in can effectively remake the party in their image, as Trump did before. The pressing question is, who will rebuild the Republican Party that Trump broke?

There are a few factions to consider, but first, let’s consider who cannot or will likely not lead the GOP into a future.

First and foremost, the elected GOP representatives that didn’t stand up to Trump or check him. This accounts for the vast majority of national, state, and local officials. These are the men and women who claimed they would call balls and strikes, praise Trump for his good accomplishments, and admonish him for his mistakes. Of course, we now know that this same group stood by as the President broke law after law, ballooned the deficit, and kowtowed to communists and dictators. In the wake of selling out every last principle they ran on in their careers, cancelling primaries to protect Trump, and disavowing the work of their entire lives, how can they claim to be tomorrow’s leaders? Who could look to them and respect them as authority figures in the wake of such public disgrace and debasement? Democrats would have full license to any illicit or improper actions they desired, as these men and women would have no moral credibility to stand on in the wake of Trump’s scandals and personal character.

It will not be those who have fled Washington when the going got tough. These are the Jeff Flakes and Paul Ryans of the world, who abdicated power rather than face reelection, with the premise they could potentially come back to politics later in life. This is especially true of the Paul Ryan’s of the world, who had the opportunity to stop or curtail Trump’s illicit activities earlier, and set a principled example for the grassroots, and chose not to.

Lastly, barring a miracle, it will not be the Never Trump movement either. It turns out that calling Trump out for the liar and criminal he is remains unpopular with the Republican base. The Never Trumper base is largely a mix of Romney-Clinton Voters and Tea Party types who were serious about their convictions, such as Justin Amash. These forces, at best, represent about a third of the Pre-Trump GOP, and they have largely been absent from positions of authority within the party, even on the grassroots level. The Never Trumpers have the moral high ground and the integrity to have stuck to their principles when the chips were down, but that came at the cost of nearly all their public platforms and positions within the party apparatus. Without having a seat at the table, they face an especially difficult challenge coming back to in-party relevancy as an electoral force.

With these groups out of the way, who are the options left on the table?

First off, there are the Pundits. The Tucker Carlsons and Candice Owens. The Grifters have the platform to push for a new conservatism, but by and large, but they have no policy ideas or form of governance, merely a war against leftists. They will continue their sound and fury, but they signify nothing. In the end, wherever the party will end up, they will stay on as the propagandists and cheerleaders for the new era, completely selling out Trumpism as they sold out conservatism before.

Secondly, there are the Straddlers. The Straddlers are those that joined the Trump train, but kept themselves at a far enough distance to not be completely subsumed by its’ will. Conversely, there are those that didn’t join the Trump Train officially, but went along with the agenda enough to be acceptable to the MAGAites. These are the Nikki Haley’s, Mitt Romney’s, and Greg Abbott’s of the world. By and large, they are out of the Washington circle, and have largely stayed out of the national fray, focusing solely on their tasks. The benefit of this was that they got to be endorsed by Trump without having to endorse his every action. This positions them well, with the ability to potentially unite those who voted blue for the first time in 2018 and the current Trump Base. The question is, when the time comes for them to step up, will they be able to convince disaffected conservatives to vote for them in spite of their Trumpist past? Or even more pressingly, will the Trump base canonize them as their new leaders?

Third, you have the perennial libertarians. The libertarians provide an intellectual and ideological center to reorient the GOP to a truly small-government party, but their leadership is so scattershot and unfocused, it would be difficult for them to coalesce into a proper electoral force. If they can find the leaders to rise to the occasion, however, there’s never been a more prime time for the libertarians to rise to national prominence.

Finally, you have The Trump coalition heirs. These are Mike Pence, Don Jr., Ivanka, Jim Jordan, Devin Nunes, and the like. These are the family members who could create the next political dynasty, or the die hard allies who took every bullet and defended every action, no matter how humiliating or criminal. They are the darlings of the grassroots who will sell out crowds and remain Trumpist rock stars in the future. They have all the keys to power right now, but can they survive without Trump? Will they hold up Trump and continue to identify as Trump Republicans, as GOP of the past held up Reagan? And more importantly, will they be able to continue working together, and not devolve into territorial factionalism? Only time will tell.

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In the end, if the GOP of the future does not want to be beholden to Trump and the MAGAites, the change must come from the grassroots. The conservative intelligencia has shown they only respond to public pressure. The people in their rooms right now, at conservative events, talking to politicians and organizing public pressure, are the Trumpists, and that’s largely the reason no one in the GOP has managed to successfully stand up to Trump. If left unchecked, this is the future of the Party of Lincoln. Isolationism, Building the Wall, economic protectionism, nativism, and political incorrectness will continue to be the animating forces for one of the two major political apparatuses. In other words, for things to change, Never Trumpers, Libertarians, and their allies need to start showing up at local and state party meetings and publicly demanding their leaders chart a new course. This type of public pressure is the only way to shift the Overton window inside the GOP. Until someone can organize themselves not just as an intellectual movement, but a political one, Trump will keep his stranglehold on the Republican Party.

Christian Thrailkill is a graduate of Southern Methodist University, musician, and columnist. He lives in Dallas, Texas.